Global Prevalnce of Hiv and Ptients on Art 2016
J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2021 Sep; 11(three): 296–301.
Global Epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: A Resurgence in N America and Europe
Romona D. Govender
1Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates Academy, Tawam Hospital Campus, Al Own 17666, UAE
Muhammad Jawad Hashim
aneDepartment of Family Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates Academy, Tawam Hospital Campus, Al Ain 17666, UAE
Moien AB Khan
1Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates Academy, Tawam Hospital Campus, Al Own 17666, UAE
Halla Mustafa
1Section of Family Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Tawam Hospital Campus, Al Ain 17666, UAE
Gulfaraz Khan
2Department of Medical Microbiology and Immunology, Higher of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Tawam Hospital Campus, Al Ain 17666, UAE
Received 2020 December 24; Accustomed 2021 May 21.
Abstract
We aimed to assess global trends in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) and evaluate progress toward eradication since the inception of the pandemic. Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 update and the UNAIDS Data 2019. The datasets included annual figures from 1990 to 2019 for HIV/AIDS in 204 countries and all world regions. We analyzed rates and trends for prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability adapted life years. Analysis of age and gender distribution in different regions was used to assess demographic changes. Forecasting was used to estimate illness burden up to 2040. Although many countries accept witnessed a decrease in the incidence, for Russia, Ukraine, Portugal, Brazil, Spain and the United States, the rates of new cases are rise since 2010. This trend is present fifty-fifty in historic period-standardized analysis, indicating a rise in backlog of population growth. Over 0.5% of the world's population is infected. About 5000 new infections occur daily, of which 500 are children. Bloodshed rates are falling globally; currently at xi deaths per 100,000 population, forecasted to decrease to 8.five deaths by 2040. Prevalence continues to increment, with South Africa, Nigeria, Mozambique, Bharat, Republic of kenya and the United States having the highest burden. The total number likewise equally the rates of new HIV infections are rising every year in Europe, South America, Northward America and other regions over the final decade. Maternal-to-child manual continues at high rates despite effective preventive regimens. In that location is an urgent demand to develop programs to curb the ascension incidence of HIV.
Keywords: HIV, AIDS, epidemiology, disease burden, prevalence, incidence, mortality
1. INTRODUCTION
Man Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) continue to exist a major global health tragedy despite intense efforts in international and local initiatives to address the pandemic. In 2001, the Un held a Special General Assembly where it was accustomed that HIV/AIDS was a global public wellness crunch and the determination was fabricated to intensify international activity and mobilize resource to fight the pandemic. The millennium development goal six of the Millennium Annunciation of 2000, initiated a concerted global effort to tackle the growing epidemic of HIV/AIDS [1]. After 2 decades and US$ 109.8 billion in donor funding [ii], the global community needs to re-evaluate progress beyond world regions.
Although antiretroviral handling (Fine art) has reduced AIDS-related deaths, access to therapy is not universal, and the prospects of curative treatments and an effective vaccine are nevertheless uncertain. It has been argued that prevention and awareness programs may prove to exist more a viable arroyo [3]. However, these hopes were not materialized due to high prevalence of HIV and limited access to antiretroviral therapy among key populations [4]. HIV spread proved to be multifactorial with social factors playing an important role [5,vi]. HIV testing had to attach to the ethical principles protecting patient confidentiality and this together with stigma and discrimination may have hidden the disease in many societies and still continues to practise so [7]. Developing countries particularly those in Africa were not geared to handle the burden that HIV/AIDS imposed on their fragile wellness systems [8]. This was not the only reason for the outbreak to get a pandemic. Preventive measures such as safety utilise, prevention of mother-to-child transmission, voluntary male medical circumcision and customs awareness campaigns have been less successful than anticipated perhaps due to unaddressed systems issues [9]. Antiretroviral therapy had more People Living with HIV (PLHIV) and thus information technology was predictable that the incidence and mortality volition decrease. Preexposure prophylaxis, viral suppression leading to the concept of 'Undetectable = Untransmittable' (U = U), and antenatal regimens were expected to further reduce the transmission of the virus [10,xi]. HIV infections vary by regions, fifty-fifty within countries [12,13]. These variations in HIV prevalence have important implications in the efforts to bring HIV pandemic under control. In this study, nosotros intend to characterize the epidemiological trends of HIV/AIDS globally from 1990 to 2019 during a time of changing antiretroviral therapy.
ii. MATERIALS AND METHODS
Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemiological data were analyzed from Global Burden of Disease (GBD)-2019 equally well every bit UNAIDS Information 2019. The latter is a comprehensive and authoritative report released recently [14]. UNAIDS provides country level information from 1990 to 2019, attainable at http://aidsinfo.unaids.org/. It includes data on key populations as well equally for global and regional trends. Based on officially provided national data from sentinel surveillance and routine HIV testing, the UNAIDS Information generates prevalence and mortality estimates using modelling techniques with specific parameters [15].
The GBD information for HIV/AIDS (coded every bit A.one.1 in GBD) were obtained from the Institute of Health Metrics Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington (downloaded from IHME database in late 2020). These estimates are part of the GBD study and include annual estimates from 1990 to 2019 for all countries and regions [16–18]. GBD provides a systematic quantification of incidence, prevalence, inability and mortality acquired by HIV across different countries [19]. GBD health metrics are compiled from several primary sources including research studies, government reports and infirmary registries, as well as UNAIDS Data. Estimates are generated by sophisticated modeling techniques that take into account information availability, accuracy and reliability [twenty]. GBD differs from UNAIDS Data every bit information technology modifies its estimates to fit within the ceiling of total deaths within each region [21].
Nosotros reviewed the incidence, prevalence, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and mortality rates for HIV/AIDS from the most recent update past GBD. Being based on premature death and disability, DALYs provide a more authentic moving-picture show of human suffering than prevalence or mortality. The total number of cases also every bit rates per 100,000 population were used to compare the burden beyond different countries. Forecasting was conducted using the GBD Foresight analytical tool. Age-adjusted rates were used in evaluated temporal trends to remove effects of alterations in population age structure due to migration and changes in nativity and death rates.
three. RESULTS
iii.1. Incidence
Human immunodeficiency virus incidence showed a resurgence over the final decade in certain regions, including North America, S America, Oceania (Western Pacific) and Europe (Figure 1A). For example, countries such as Espana and Portugal accept rising rates of newly infected cases since 2010 (Figure ii). In the Usa, the incidence charge per unit rose from 15.6 new cases per 100,000 in 2010 to 21.0 cases in 2019. Total number of new infections in the United states of america increased from 48,175 per year in 2010 to 67,000 persons contracting the virus in 2019 (in add-on to pre-existing cases). This increase has been consistently ascension for more than than a decade. The charge per unit of rise is alarmingly high in Russia, Portugal, Ukraine and Brazil. Nonetheless, there has been a gradual reversal of this trend in Russia and Ukraine over the last five years. Other countries with rising incidence rates include Kazakhstan, Argentina, Mexico, Cuba, Commonwealth of australia and Caribbean island nations such as the Bahamas. This ascension tendency is present even when age-standardized rates were analyzed, indicating an effect to a higher place and across natural population increase. The incidence rates are forecasted to continue rise for the next two decades, reaching approximately 25 new cases per 100,000 in the United states of america (https://hiv.ihme.services/spending-touch).
Epidemiological trends in HIV/AIDS. (A) Rising rates indicating a resurgence in Western Europe and the U.s.a.*. (B) Falling mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa. *Mean of incidence rates for Portugal, Spain, Italian republic, Germany and the US. Age-standardized rates were used to adjust for changes in population construction over time.
Rising HIV incidence rates (per 100,000 population) over the final decade in selected countries. (A) Italian republic. (B) Portugal. (C) Argentina. (D) Spain. (Eastward) United Kingdom. (F) United states.
In contrast, South Africa, Kenya and other African countries accept witnessed a steady subtract. Later a rapid rise from 1990 to 2000, the incidence of HIV/AIDS in Southward Africa decreased dramatically until 2005, afterwards on the rate of decline in incidence was slower. Substantial fall in incidence rates have too been observed in Prc and the Indian Subcontinent (South Asia) over the concluding ii decades. Despite the falling rates, sub-Saharan African nations even so sustain the world'due south highest numbers of new infections by far.
iii.two. Mortality
Mortality rates have decreased from a peak in 2005, globally equally well as in sub-Saharan Africa (Figure 1B). This refuse started before (in the mid-1990s) in countries with more developed wellness systems, such as Brazil and the US. The dramatic fall in deaths due to AIDS in Haiti is notable. In terms of total number of deaths, Nigeria, Due south Africa and Mozambique sustained the greatest burden, followed by countries such equally India, China and the Russian Federation due to their big overall populations. Forecasting indicates that the current rate at 11 deaths per 100,000, will go along to decrease to 8.5 deaths past 2040. However, an upward trend is possible in a worst case scenario.
3.3. Prevalence
The global burden of HIV/AIDS was 36.9 million cases in 2019, corresponding to 0.5% of the world'southward population, with a prevalence rate of 476 cases per 100,000. Global HIV prevalence showed a meridian in 2005, decreasing for 5 years and and then regaining a rising trend since 2010 (perhaps due to increased survival with ART). Currently, prevalence is rising globally as well as in countries such as South Africa, Portugal, Brazil, Mexico, Republic of peru, Spain, Federal republic of germany and the Us. Both gross and age-standardized rates are rising in these countries indicating that this is well in excess of natural increase due to population growth. Portugal stands out with a rapidly rising prevalence rate, from 86 to 370 per 100,000 (from 1990 to 2019 respectively). However, this pales in comparison to South Africa'southward meteoric rise from 354 to 14,251 per 100,000 over the aforementioned menses. Regional distribution of the burden of HIV/AIDS is heavily concentrated in cardinal and southern African countries such as Kingdom of lesotho, Mozambique, Southward Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia (Figure three).
Geographical distribution of HIV/AIDS in Africa, ages fifteen–49 years, 2017. Source: IHME, Local Burden of Disease – HIV, 2017.
iii.4. Burden of Suffering (DALY)
The truthful burden of this pandemic is more than accurately reflected by DALYs (Table 1). Here again, several African countries from the primal and southern regions bear witness the highest burden of disability and premature deaths from AIDS related complications.
Table ane
Disease burden of HIV/AIDS
| Region | Prevalence rate (per 100,000 population) | The burden of human suffering (DALY per 100,000 population) | Full number of cases |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global | 476 | 616 | 36,848,000 |
| Europe | 254 | 198 | 2,155,000 |
| Frg | 94 | 27 | 80,000 |
| French republic | 155 | 40 | 103,000 |
| Italy | 160 | 54 | 96,000 |
| Espana | 225 | 79 | 103,000 |
| Netherlands | 123 | 22 | 21,000 |
| Switzerland | 257 | 37 | 23,000 |
| Russia | 776 | 730 | 1,138,000 |
| United Kingdom | 196 | thirty | 132,000 |
| Asia | 100 | 157 | iv,538,000 |
| Prc | 39 | 98 | 551,000 |
| Bharat | 131 | 187 | 1,826,000 |
| Nippon | 36 | vii | 46,000 |
| Due south Korea | 56 | 17 | 30,000 |
| Australia | seventy | 17 | 17,000 |
| Americas | 391 | 273 | iii,953,000 |
| United States | 531 | 127 | one,743,000 |
| Canada | 253 | 49 | 92,000 |
| Brazil | 411 | 373 | 891,000 |
| Africa | 1990 | 2731 | 26,167,000 |
| South Africa | 14,251 | 13,821 | 7,922,000 |
| Lesotho | 17,883 | 27,335 | 374,000 |
| Botswana | xv,007 | 12,406 | 351,000 |
| Namibia | 8546 | 8472 | 205,000 |
| Zimbabwe | 8175 | 7824 | 1,227,000 |
| Mozambique | 7977 | 13,894 | 2,355,000 |
| Republic of zambia | 6711 | 7467 | ane,224,000 |
| Kenya | 3329 | 5448 | 1,672,000 |
| Uganda | 3323 | 3114 | i,367,000 |
| Tanzania | 2650 | 2715 | ane,503,000 |
3.5. Age Distribution
Incidence rates of HIV show a bimodal distribution with peaks in infancy and young adults, respective to perinatal manual and sexual/needle-sharing routes, respectively (Figure 4A). Ages with the highest incidence rate, later on infancy, were the 20–39-year-old group (Effigy 4A). According to UNAIDS Information, about 5000 new infections occur daily, of which 500 are children. Young women (15–24 years quondam) in sub-Saharan Africa are peculiarly susceptible. The ageing of HIV positive individuals due to improved survival with Art was apparent when comparison prevalence rates from 1990 and 2017 (Figure 4B). The modal age increased from 25–30 to 35–40 years former historic period groups, respectively. Globally, females have higher prevalence rates while males have greater mortality rates. The incidence of new cases is similar in both genders. This pattern is present in countries such as South Africa and Zimbabwe. However, in Brazil, Western Europe and the United states, prevalence, incidence and mortality are all higher amongst males.
Historic period distribution of HIV/AIDS worldwide. (A) Incidence. (B) Prevalence.
4. DISCUSSION
The key finding from this report is the rising incidence of HIV in certain countries in Europe, Northward America and South America. This alarming finding indicates a resurgence of the epidemic over the last decade.
We establish global trends that indicate considerable progress in curbing the HIV/AIDS pandemic worldwide. AIDS mortality is decreasing in most regions of the world, which is a remarkable achievement. HIV incidence reached a acme in 1998 with a rapid decline until 2005 and thereafter the graph showed a gradual and steady decline over time. Fifty-fifty countries like South Africa, which is an epicenter of the pandemic, showed a turn down in incidence rates. Much of this success may be attributed to primary and secondary prevention programs, condom availability [22], male person medical circumcision [23], pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and Fine art particularly for HIV-positive mother-to-child manual. These concerted initiatives are funded by local governments as well as international donors and charitable foundations [2].
However, despite the global turn down in incidence rates of HIV, countries similar the The states and Kingdom of spain show ascension incidence rates since 2010. Russia, Ukraine, Brazil, Argentine republic and Portugal have witnessed fifty-fifty higher rates. Although, the underlying reasons for this trend are not clear and demand further public wellness inquiry, a report by Murray et al. postulates that a slowing downwards of the affect of public wellness HIV intervention programs may explicate the increasing trend notably amidst Men having Sex activity with Men (MSM) [xix]. A study conducted in Portugal investigating the drivers for the increased HIV transmission rates, identified MSM and transmission of drug resistant strains of HIV as important contributors [24]. In 2016, Portugal had one of the highest diagnosis rates of HIV in Europe [17]. Other studies in Europe, Brazil and the US indicate that immature MSMs are disproportionately represented in new HIV transmissions [25]. In the United States, new HIV infections have been attributed mostly to key populations such as MSM, followed by heterosexual contact, and to a lesser extent to injection-drug use [26,27]. In Spain, among newly diagnosed persons, the majority were aged 25–34-year-sometime males [28]. Indeed, no region or country in the world has reached their 2020 target [15]. The hopes of catastrophe the AIDS epidemic in the about hereafter are cast into doubt with this resurgence.
Successful treatment regimens of ART are shifting HIV into a chronic affliction. An increasing number of people receiving Art take nearly normal life-expectancy, resulting in more than PLHIV experiencing other chronic diseases. A major public health implication is that HIV-related healthcare needs volition increase, placing a ascension burden on health systems. Withal, an estimated 17.two million individuals with HIV are non receiving ART [29]. Of those receiving Fine art, viral suppression is achieved in only 44%.
Despite these global efforts to scale up prevention and handling, the picture show in sub-Saharan Africa remains that of an uncontrolled epidemic. Sub-Saharan Africa is home to merely 2% of the global population, all the same disproportionately accounts for i third of the global brunt of HIV infection [xxx]. Nosotros found that HIV incidence has declined, peculiarly sharply in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa (S Africa, Republic of kenya, Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland, Republic of zambia and Rwanda). This improvement is nigh likely due to standardized treatment protocols using decentralized health service delivery, preventing mother-to-child-transmission and reducing new HIV infections through prevention. Maternal knowledge of HIV transmission prevention during pregnancy appears to be improving [31]. However, despite constructive preventive regimens, we plant evidence of substantial perinatal manual. An estimated 4 one thousand thousand children have been infected worldwide [32]. Even with the decreasing incidence and mortality since 2005, the brunt of the global HIV epidemic continues to be concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa.
Global Burden of Disease relies on modelling and estimation based on chief data from a multitude sources. As dissimilar chief sources have different methodologies, case definitions and example finding intensities, estimates tin become less reliable. In item, comparison beyond regions tin exist problematic due to variations in resources availability and inquiry capacity. As well, every bit AIDS is a politically charged event and remains stigmatized, at that place is probable to be considerable underreporting [33]. Despite these limitations, the GBD dataset is the most comprehensive and up-to-appointment resources on illness epidemiology. The modelling techniques used in GBD take into consideration some of these issues that bear on reliability of estimates.
v. CONCLUSION
Our study found a apropos rise in incidence of HIV in Europe, the Usa and Southward America. This is an alarming nonetheless underreported trend. Despite intense research and substantial public health expenditure, the total number of newly infected cases is rising every twelvemonth in these countries. The blueprint and implementation of national HIV programs will determine the class of the epidemic. Prevention interventions should involve and engage cardinal populations. Sub-Saharan Africa continues sustain unbearably loftier burden and accounts for untold human suffering. This analysis provides insights into the current and time to come trends to accomplish eradication of the HIV epidemic. Achieving such a goal will not only require funding for universal Fine art access, but also more constructive sociocultural strategies for HIV prevention.
Footnotes
Information availability statement: All data relevant to the study are included in the article and available online at http://ghdx.healthdata.org.
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
The authors declare they have no conflicts of interest.
AUTHORS' CONTRIBUTION
MJH conceived and designed the report. HM and MJH performed the data collection and analysed the information. RDG, HM, MABK and MJH wrote the paper. RDG, MJH, MABK, HM and GK revised the paper.
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