Will Armenia and Azerbaijan Go to War Again
Since Russian federation's invasion of Ukraine, Armenia, Republic of azerbaijan and Georgia have tried in different means to residual the need for skilful relations with Moscow with a desire to support Ukrainian territorial integrity and sovereignty. Each has reason to be cautious: Moscow has exploited ongoing conflicts in all three countries to boss its self-defined sphere of vital interests. While these conflicts persist, Moscow will maintain meaning leverage over Yerevan, Baku and Tbilisi. Working with them to resolve these conflicts and preserve their sovereignty should be a priority for the U.s. and Europe.
The Weight of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Russian federation plays an important function in the nigh volatile conflict in the region — that between Armenia and Republic of azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. The decades-long state of war over this breakaway, primarily ethnic Armenian region in Republic of azerbaijan flared up again in 2020, resulting in more than 1,000 casualties.
This conflict direct affects Armenia and Azerbaijan's behavior toward Russia. On February 22, the day subsequently Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the independence of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics in eastern Ukraine, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev traveled to Moscow to sign an agreement increasing the two countries' military and diplomatic cooperation. Every bit the U.N. Security Quango condemned Russia'due south deportment in Ukraine, Aliyev'southward deportment appeared to indicate that Azerbaijan chose the Russian side in the conflict. Aliyev, withal, denied this, saying the visit and the agreement had been planned long before the invasion of Ukraine.
Intentional support for Russia or not, past signing the "Proclamation on Allied Interaction between the Democracy of Republic of azerbaijan and the Russian federation," Azerbaijan signaled the centrality of the Nagorno-Karabakh disharmonize in its relationship with Russia.
The agreement benefited Republic of azerbaijan by committing the parties to "build their relations on the basis of allied interaction, mutual respect for independence, state sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of the land borders of the two countries."
This is important for a state with an ongoing territorial dispute with Armenia, peculiarly because Armenia's membership in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty System (CSTO). Despite Russia's treaty obligations to Armenia, information technology was Russian arms sales to Republic of azerbaijan that helped Baku successfully capture territory in the 2020 war, and it's Russia that has negotiated several cease-fires throughout the course of the decades-long conflict. With Russian peacekeepers stationed in the territory, Baku cannot beget to alienate Moscow and risk having it tilt its back up fully to Armenia.
At the same fourth dimension, Azerbaijan has a historically stiff relationship with Ukraine, which has voiced support for the integrity of Azerbaijan's internationally recognized territory throughout the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Every bit a result, rather than publicly supporting Russia's state of war, Azerbaijan has been quietly sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine and allowing Ukraine'southward military to obtain fuel from Azerbaijani-owned gas stations at no cost. Baku is thus trying to maintain a conscientious residuum betwixt these two of import partners. A clear indication of this endeavor was the Council of Europe vote terminating Russian membership — rather than vote to kick Russian federation out or to proceed it in, Republic of azerbaijan but did not show upwards.
Armenia is in an even more difficult position due to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. A fellow member of the CSTO, Armenia hosts more than than x,000 Russian soldiers, including a Russian military machine base of operations, Russian border guards and a Russian peacekeeping force in the Armenian-controlled areas of Nagorno-Karabakh.
With Azerbaijan on i edge and Azerbaijan's ally Turkey (with whom Armenia has no diplomatic relations) on another, Armenia finds itself ever more dependent upon Russia for its security. Indeed, it was Russia's intervention to negotiate a cease-fire that stopped the 2020 war that was threatening the "complete devastation of the surviving Armenian forces."
Equally part of that agreement, Russia'due south peacekeeping mandate only extends until 2025, at which point information technology might or might not be extended. Armenia needs to stay in Russian federation's good graces to ensure its continued support for a finish-fire and negotiated settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The departure of the Russian mission would open the road for Azerbaijan to renew hostilities and retake all its lost territory.
At the same time, Armenia wants to maintain ties with the European Union (EU) and the West, only is non eager to support Ukraine because of Kyiv's past support for Azerbaijan.
As a issue, Armenia has sought to signal its support for Russia without alienating the West. Armenia voted against revoking Russia'due south membership in the Quango of Europe and abstained in votes suspending Russia from the U.N. Man Rights Council and condemning Russia in U.N. Full general Associates. Information technology has not recognized the independence of Ukraine's breakaway regions, however, and is welcoming refugees from that state of war.
Georgia'due south Measured Stance
Georgia'south physical proximity to Russia has as well placed information technology in a difficult position, simply with slightly unlike challenges than those facing Armenia and Azerbaijan. Popular sentiment in Georgia favors Ukraine, with protesters taking to the streets to express their opposition to the Russian attack. The government, withal, has taken a measured stance, aware of its vulnerability to Russian military actions. The conflicts over 2 separatist regions in Georgia are the root of this reaction.
In 2008, much similar with Ukraine today, Russia invaded Georgia, recognizing the independence of 2 of its regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Since then, Russian federation has fortified those areas, with more than than x,000 troops in South Ossetia and a military base of operations in Abkhazia, and has used hybrid tools to undermine Georgian stability and brand it more vulnerable to Russian aggression.
As a result, the Georgian government is hesitant to draw Moscow's ire. After global sanctions were appear against Russia, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili declared them "not effective means" to stop the bombing of Ukraine and said Georgia would non take office in them.
Despite this, Georgia's authorities prioritizes its relationship with the West. Like Ukraine, Georgia is pursuing both NATO and Eu membership, formally applying for the latter on March iii. Georgia voted to expel Russia from the Council of Europe, for the U.N. General Assembly to condemn Russian actions and in support of the International Criminal Court'due south investigation of declared Russian war crimes. Garibashvili's statements notwithstanding, the National Depository financial institution of Georgia indicated that it would not help Russia evade sanctions.
The persistent conflicts in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have left those countries vulnerable to manipulation and pressure from Moscow. Russian federation's invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated how Moscow uses and fosters territorial conflicts to inflict catastrophic results on its neighbors. Resolving territorial disputes is fundamental to not only ending persistent violence and bloodshed, simply also enabling these countries to assert their sovereignty and pursue their own foreign policies.
Mary Glantz is the U.S. State Department Senior Young man at USIP, where her work primarily focuses on analysis and policy recommendations regarding Russia'south role in the world.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are the author's own and not necessarily those of the U.S. government.
Source: https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/03/armenia-azerbaijan-and-georgias-balancing-act-over-russias-war-ukraine
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